Vivek Ramaswamy entered Ohio‘s governor’s race with nearly every advantage a Republican could hope for: President Donald Trump’s endorsement, tens of millions of dollars in campaign spending, and a state that has steadily shifted to the right.
Yet, four months from Election Day, the race remains far tighter than many Republicans expected, especially since Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024.
“A lot of Republicans assumed Ohio would be an easy hold,” one Ohio GOP strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told the Washington Examiner. “That no longer feels like a safe assumption. Ramaswamy can’t just rely on his money and unlimited resources. He needs to step up. It wasn’t a good look for him when he spent the Fourth of July flying his private jet to Paris when he should have been in Ohio.”
The criticism comes as Ramaswamy has faced growing scrutiny over his campaign strategy, including his decision to spend part of the Fourth of July weekend in Paris rather than campaigning in Ohio. His campaign did not respond to the Washington Examiner’s request for comment.
Recent polling has reflected the increasingly competitive race. A New York Times/Siena poll found Ramaswamy and Amy Acton, the former Ohio public health director, tied at 47%, with Acton leading independents by 28 points while winning support from 6% of Republican voters and 8% of Trump voters. A bipartisan AARP survey conducted by Impact Research and Fabrizio Ward gave Acton a narrow 47%-44% lead while finding Ramaswamy deeply underwater with independents and voters under 50.
The polling prompted the Cook Political Report last week to shift the race from lean Republican to toss-up. Editor Jessica Taylor wrote that “Ohio will test whether limitless spending can buy a governor’s race even if the candidate has obvious flaws.” Another leading election forecaster, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, continues to rate the race lean Republican.
The governor’s race is unfolding alongside a closely watched Senate contest in the state between former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH). While polling in that race has been mixed, it has similarly pointed to a more competitive political environment than many Republicans anticipated, and Brown has vastly outraised Husted. The race could be crucial if Democrats are to retake the Senate majority on an unfavorable battlefield.
But not all Republicans agree the tightening race reflects real trouble for the GOP.
“I would tend to continue to be optimistic about the governor’s race and, frankly, the U.S. Senate race in Ohio,” Republican strategist Matt Dole told the Washington Examiner. “I think we sort of go through this every four years, where the summertime is spent trying to get the media to bite on internal polls by Democrats that show these races as competitive.”
Dole argued comparisons to Gov. Mike DeWine’s (R-OH) overwhelming victories are misleading because DeWine was a uniquely popular candidate who appealed across party lines.
“I think it’s probably a 5- or 6-point race, but that is safe territory for Vivek Ramaswamy,” he said.
He also dismissed the recent polling altogether.
“I think polling stinks in general,” Dole said. “I understand why Cook [Political Report] did what they did. I think that evidence is garbage and goes against the context of Ohio politics and even how we feel on the ground here right now.”
Dole said Ramaswamy continues to draw large crowds across the state, arguing his popularity is being overlooked by national observers.
“He has a celebrity angle to him that other candidates don’t have,” Dole said. “He is an incredibly popular guy, and it’s not just among the Republican base, it’s among independents as well.”
Democrats in the state argue the polls reflect growing dissatisfaction with Ramaswamy rather than a temporary fluctuation.
“Ramaswamy’s performance is really what’s driving it,” Ohio Democratic strategist Jeff Rusnak told the Washington Examiner. “Dr. Acton is drawing huge crowds and building a big base of support … and you contrast those with Ramaswamy, who just keeps going down, down, down.”
Rusnak said Ramaswamy has struggled to connect with Ohio voters despite spending tens of millions of dollars on the race.
“I think every time he opens his mouth, he turns people off,” Rusnak said. “Who goes to Paris for the Fourth of July? Traveling around the world on his private jet is no way to get elected governor in Ohio.”
Rusnak also argued Acton is making inroads with moderate Republicans and independents.
“I don’t think she has trouble finding 10% to 15% of Republicans that are going to vote for her, or will stay home because they’re just so frustrated with him and turned off by him,” he said.
The contest has also become one of the most expensive gubernatorial races in Ohio history. Ramaswamy has loaned his campaign $25 million, raised millions more, and benefited from a $20 million contribution to a super PAC backing his bid. The super PAC, V-PAC, also received a $5 million donation from Elon Musk, despite the pair’s highly publicized falling out after Ramaswamy briefly joined Musk to lead Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative before leaving the effort.
Between mid-May and the end of June, Ramaswamy’s campaign and the allied super PAC spent nearly $9 million on advertising, compared with roughly $100,000 by Acton’s campaign. Acton announced July 10 that she had raised more than $18 million, setting a fundraising record for an Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate.
Acton’s campaign argued the Cook Political Report’s rating change reflects what voters are already telling the campaign.
“This rating shift reflects what Dr. Acton hears on the ground every day: Ohioans are ready for change,” campaign manager Philip Stein said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner. “Ohioans know that Dr. Acton is the only candidate in this race who will lower costs, tackle the cost of corruption, and build an Ohio where all of us can get ahead. While Vivek Ramaswamy is far from Ohio, globetrotting aboard his private jet, Dr. Acton is fighting for a state where all of us can thrive.”
MUSK DUMPS $5 MILLION IN RAMASWAMY’S CAMPAIGN DESPITE DOGE FALLOUT
Ramaswamy has rejected suggestions the race is slipping away. Speaking with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, he argued that quality public polling has become scarce while welcoming a greater sense of urgency among Republican voters.
“First of all, good public polling has dried up,” Ramaswamy said. “The thing I don’t mind, though, Hugh, is I don’t mind Republicans and conservatives across the state having an important sense of urgency about this election, because we all should. I mean, in the end, the government we elect is the government we deserve.”
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
