The world is on course to breach the international commitment to limit global warming as laid out in the Paris climate agreement, according to the United Nations.
In a new report Wednesday, the U.N. Environment Programme concluded that it is inevitable that global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the target set in the 2015 agreement. Climate experts say crossing that mark would increase risks for extreme weather events caused by climate change.
The goal should now be more modest, according to the report. Namely, it should be to push the temperature deviation back below the 1.5-degree limit by the year 2100. Doing so would require cutting greenhouse gas emissions 69% by 2040.
“While it is now inevitable that warming will exceed 1.5°C by more than 0.1°C, it is still possible to minimize the magnitude and duration of this overshoot, and to return global warming to or below 1.5°C by the end of the century,” the report reads.
Globally, climate goals have taken a backseat in recent years to energy security and affordability, especially given the fuel supply chain shocks caused by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Fewer G20 countries are making enough progress to meet their 2030 national climate action plans, while climate targets for 2035 vary in ambition, according to the report.
All G20 nations except Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and the United States have new nationally determined contributions with mitigation targets for 2035, with Mexico the only one to strengthen its 2030 target as part of its new NDC. Only six countries are likely to achieve their 2030 climate targets, according to the report: China, India, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa and Turkey.
President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Paris Agreement. The president argued that the group has been unfair to the U.S. and allowed China and India to continue to release massive amounts of emissions. The administration has focused on boosting the domestic fossil fuel industry.
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If current policies remain, the report warns, warming could reach 2.8°C within this century and continue to increase.
“Overshoot is not surrender,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in a video on X. “We can still keep it as small and as short as possible – and bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century.”
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[ H/T Washington Examiner ]
