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It’s a midterm year with a Republican in the White House, and so, if history holds, Republicans face an uphill battle this November. A bad night for Republicans, including in Ohio, is possible, but is it likely? If you believe the polls, forecasts, and betting markets, Ohio Republicans could see losses ahead on Nov. 3.
A slew of polls were released this week focusing on the special election U.S. Senate race and the open governor’s race. Republican Sen. Jon Husted, appointed to fill Vice President JD Vance’s vacancy is facing former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is looking for a comeback after losing to now-Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024.
Brown has sought to tie Husted to data centers as a losing issue, while the Senate Leadership Fund is focusing on Brown’s support for transgender surgeries for minors.
RealClearPolling’s averages have Brown with a +3.7 spread over Husted, with Brown shown to be leading by anywhere from 1 point to 8 points in the various polls conducted this month. That 8-point lead of 51%-43% came from a Marist poll released this week involving 1,298 registered voters, rather than likely voters, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy will meanwhile face Democrat Amy Acton, who served as Gov. Mike DeWine’s director of health during COVID-19, a detail Ohio Republicans won’t let voters forget.
That same Marist poll has Acton ahead with almost as significant a lead, at 50%-44%. A USA Today/Suffolk poll showing Acton up by 9 points, 50%-41% among 500 likely voters, was also just released and is trending on X.
With those polls included, RCP averages have Acton with a lead of +3.0 over Ramaswamy, though there are fewer polls included than in special election U.S. Senate race.
It’s worth mentioning that Ohio is one of the more difficult states for reaching Republican voters, according to Echelon Insights.
These races once favored Republicans, which makes sense, given that Ohio is considered something of a red state. However, Ohio has become a state potentially favoring Democrats this cycle.
The U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races are considered “Toss-Ups,” but some have Brown and Acton favored to win, as is the case with VoteHub.
It’s possible that Brown, Acton, or both could run away with an Election Night victory just over a month away, especially since we’re in a midterm election year and if there’s a coattails effect. But it seems dubious that the spread could be as high as +8 or +6, midterm year or not.
These races seem to be true “Toss-Ups,” where neither result would be surprising, but it also seems more likely that the margin of victory would be one of 3 to 5 points.
Polymarket gives Brown a 60% chance of winning, as does Kalshi, as of Wednesday afternoon. VoteHub has him at a whopping 66% chance, though, and shifted the race from a “Tilt Democrat” race to a “Lean Democrat” race, something that feels like a bit of a stretch in what is arguably at best for Democrats a purple state.
VoteHub had also just put Acton in the “Tilt Democrat” category, as brought up during a recent podcast episode of “Midterm Report,” hosted by Rob Bluey, president and executive editor of the Daily Signal.
In a previous conversation with the Daily Signal, Republican strategist Matt Dole mentioned that Ohio “is redder in midterm elections than in presidential elections,” which he offered “helps Republicans this year,” where “Ohio tends to stay above that fray” of wave election years. He also pointed to 2006 being a victory for Ohio Democrats due to Republican scandals.
These forecasts of “Lean Democrat” with 66% chances and 8-point spreads seem too good to be true for Democrats and speak to what could end up being profound errors and misses for polls and forecasters, or a worse environment for Republicans than one might care to admit.
It also speaks to a deeper concern, as was mentioned by the Daily Signal during last weekend’s radio appearance with Ken Broo on 700WLW. Will these numbers depress voters who would end up casting a ballot for Husted, Ramaswamy, or both, but now might not bother?
President Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign raised concerns about voter suppression when Wisconsin polls showed Democratic nominee Joe Biden up by double digits. There were polls showing Biden up by +10, +11, or even +17, with a RCP average of +6.7 for Biden, who ultimately only won by +0.7.
That doesn’t mean the same thing will happen in Ohio, but it is a cautionary tale on polls.
There’s also how polls underestimate Republicans, as was the case for Moreno in 2024 and Trump in 2016, 2020, and 2024, all years which he won the Buckeye State. RCP averages had Moreno up ahead by +1.7, and he won by +3.6. Trump was only ahead by +2.2 in 2016 and won by +8.1. He was only ahead by +1.0 but won by +8.2 in 2020, and was ahead by +9.3 but won by +11.2 in 2024.
Dole also credited Trump and his coalition with making Ohio, once a purple state for presidential elections, “truly a red state.”
Even if Democrats do manage to sweep in Ohio, this could very well be an outlier for this red state given that it’s a midterm election year, and that does not necessarily mean it signals a shift in the state’s red or purple status in the years to come.
If the polls and forecasts are off for these midterms, especially by a considerable amount, it’s worth wondering how much longer their days of influence can last.
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[ H/T The Daily Signal ]
