Democrats Projected To Pull Off Historic Upset In Attempt To Flip Senate

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Democrat James Talarico is projected to pull off an enormous upset against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and win the Senate race in the Lone Star State.

Decision Desk HQ made the call at 10:14 p.m. EST.

Decision Desk HQ projects James Talarico wins the TX US Senate General Election#DecisionMade: 10:14 PM EST

Follow live results here: https://t.co/O6f6RF1XKc pic.twitter.com/lxmiHe8EJH

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2026


The projected Talarico victory is the third flip of the evening for Democrats in the upper chamber.

Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate.

The Hill shared further:

It is also a huge blow to Republicans in general, and specifically to President Trump, who endorsed controversial Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in a contentious GOP primary runoff.

Many Republicans saw Cornyn as the much safer pick, and will believe that in endorsing Paxton, who easily defeated Cornyn in a primary after the endorsement, the president helped deliver a historic victory to Democrats.

Talarico, the 37-year-old state lawmaker, was seen as Democrats’ best chance in years to break through the GOP’s domination of statewide seats.

Talarico’s measured bid focused on a unity message, leaning into his faith and experience as a Presbyterian seminarian and former public school teacher. He was one of the Democratic state legislators who fled Texas last year in a bid to stall GOP-friendly redistricting and drew comparisons to Democrat Beto O’Rourke, who came within a few points of ousting Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in 2018.

Ahead of Election Day, the Democrat narrowly led in DDHQ’s polling averages, and forecasts signaled he was slightly favored to pull it off after raising a staggering $64 million in the third quarter of the year, compared to Paxton’s $18 million.

The huge upset follows the stunning defeat of Republican Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina.


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[H/T 100PercentFedUp]

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