CNN Sees Metric That Looks 'Darn Good' For Republicans Before The Midterms
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten reported Wednesday that voter registration data in four swing states favors Republicans heading into the November midterms. This measure runs counter to polling showing Democrats ahead.
Enten told anchor John Berman that Republicans have improved their party registration margin relative to Democrats by 4 to 8 points in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania since the midpoint of President Donald Trump's first term. The comparison covers the eight years between the 2018 midterms and the current cycle and draws on state registration records, which count voters who have signed up with each party. Polls, by contrast, estimate how a sample of respondents say they plan to vote, and pollsters weight those results using their own assumptions about who will turn out.
"When you take a look at how people are actually registering — this is not polling data — compared to where we were eight years ago, Republicans are doing considerably better [than the Dems] in what are the swing states," Enten said on CNN.
Berman then asked whether the picture changes over a shorter window. He noted that the baseline for the comparison was 2018 and that polling over the past two years has moved toward Democrats.
Enten said the registration numbers do not show a matching shift in either Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, or Arizona. "There may be some tiny late gains that are going on right now, right, that I think over the last month maybe Democrats are gaining. But when you take the longer term view versus the 2024 election in which Republicans won all of these states, Democrats are, in fact, not actually gaining ground."
Berman said viewers have seen some upward movement for Democrats in the past couple of months. Enten agreed that the recent movement exists, but the problem for the Democratic Party is that it does not approach the size of the Republican gains.
"There's been some ticks up, but they, in no way, blows away the Republican gains," he said.
Asked to place the numbers in historical context, Enten said the four states share a common result. According to his analysis, the GOP holds its best party registration position relative to Democrats in a midterm year in at least 20 years in each of those swing states.
"The bottom line is this, Republicans, right now, are in a much stronger position than they have been, not just compared to eight years ago, but over the long term as well, the relative health of the Republican Party, at least in terms of party registration, is pretty gosh darn good relative to the Democrats," Enten said.
Florida makes a great case study for this trend. Up until the Trump era, Florida was considered a key swing state, but thanks to Republican registration gains in recent years, it is roughly as Republican as Texas. Trump won both states by double digits in 2024.
"I remember when Florida was a swing state," Enten said. "The bottom line is that Florida has had major gains for Republicans in party registration, and it's reflected in the races in which people are running."
All four states in Enten's comparison went to Trump in 2024, and each has competitive races on the ballot this year. Enten did not say how much of the Republican registration advantage he expects to carry over into turnout. Still, if even a fraction of those new Republican voters show up on Election Day, pollsters may find themselves explaining another miss.
Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 17:20
Continue reading...
[ H/T ZeroHedge ]
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten reported Wednesday that voter registration data in four swing states favors Republicans heading into the November midterms. This measure runs counter to polling showing Democrats ahead.
Enten told anchor John Berman that Republicans have improved their party registration margin relative to Democrats by 4 to 8 points in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania since the midpoint of President Donald Trump's first term. The comparison covers the eight years between the 2018 midterms and the current cycle and draws on state registration records, which count voters who have signed up with each party. Polls, by contrast, estimate how a sample of respondents say they plan to vote, and pollsters weight those results using their own assumptions about who will turn out.
"When you take a look at how people are actually registering — this is not polling data — compared to where we were eight years ago, Republicans are doing considerably better [than the Dems] in what are the swing states," Enten said on CNN.
Berman then asked whether the picture changes over a shorter window. He noted that the baseline for the comparison was 2018 and that polling over the past two years has moved toward Democrats.
Enten said the registration numbers do not show a matching shift in either Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, or Arizona. "There may be some tiny late gains that are going on right now, right, that I think over the last month maybe Democrats are gaining. But when you take the longer term view versus the 2024 election in which Republicans won all of these states, Democrats are, in fact, not actually gaining ground."
Berman said viewers have seen some upward movement for Democrats in the past couple of months. Enten agreed that the recent movement exists, but the problem for the Democratic Party is that it does not approach the size of the Republican gains.
"There's been some ticks up, but they, in no way, blows away the Republican gains," he said.
Asked to place the numbers in historical context, Enten said the four states share a common result. According to his analysis, the GOP holds its best party registration position relative to Democrats in a midterm year in at least 20 years in each of those swing states.
"The bottom line is this, Republicans, right now, are in a much stronger position than they have been, not just compared to eight years ago, but over the long term as well, the relative health of the Republican Party, at least in terms of party registration, is pretty gosh darn good relative to the Democrats," Enten said.
Florida makes a great case study for this trend. Up until the Trump era, Florida was considered a key swing state, but thanks to Republican registration gains in recent years, it is roughly as Republican as Texas. Trump won both states by double digits in 2024.
"I remember when Florida was a swing state," Enten said. "The bottom line is that Florida has had major gains for Republicans in party registration, and it's reflected in the races in which people are running."
All four states in Enten's comparison went to Trump in 2024, and each has competitive races on the ballot this year. Enten did not say how much of the Republican registration advantage he expects to carry over into turnout. Still, if even a fraction of those new Republican voters show up on Election Day, pollsters may find themselves explaining another miss.
Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 17:20
Continue reading...
[ H/T ZeroHedge ]
