Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
The American personal savings rate has collapsed to 3.8%, the lowest level in four years. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the savings rate declined from 4.5% in July to 4.0% in August and 3.8% in September. The government will tell you that consumer spending remains strong and that the economy continues to expand. What they fail to explain is that Americans are increasingly spending their income simply to survive, leaving less money to save for emergencies, retirement, or future investments. The consumer is being squeezed from every direction, yet Washington continues celebrating economic growth as though rising nominal spending automatically means rising prosperity.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income increased by $54.5 billion in September, while disposable personal income rose by $52.7 billion. Consumer spending, however, increased by $113.1 billion. Americans increased their spending by more than twice the increase in their disposable income. The personal savings rate fell accordingly, and real disposable income actually declined by 0.3% for the month. Real consumer spending was essentially unchanged. This is the economic reality hidden beneath the headlines. Americans are spending more dollars without purchasing significantly more goods and services. That is hardly a sign of improving living standards.
The September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased 3.6% from a year earlier, while core inflation rose 3.1%. These are annual increases being added to an already elevated price level. Meanwhile, nominal disposable income increased only 0.2% in September against a 0.5% monthly increase in consumer prices. The result was another decline in real purchasing power. Americans cannot save money that has already been consumed by rising expenses. It is astonishing that economists continue expressing surprise when consumer confidence deteriorates while the cost of maintaining an ordinary household keeps rising.
The government points to consumer spending as evidence of economic strength, but spending is not necessarily prosperity. People must purchase food regardless of whether prices rise. They must pay their mortgages, rent, insurance premiums, and electricity bills. If the cost of these necessities increases by 20% or 30%, the government records higher consumer expenditures even though households may be purchasing the same quantity of goods and services. A family paying $1,500 for what previously cost $1,200 has not become wealthier. It has lost $300 that could otherwise have been saved, invested, or spent elsewhere.
There are also two very different American economies developing. Those who accumulated financial assets and real estate before the pandemic have generally benefited from rising asset valuations. Someone who purchased a home years ago and refinanced at 3% is in an entirely different position from a younger family attempting to purchase that same property today. Home prices have increased substantially, and financing costs remain elevated compared with the pandemic years. The younger household must devote far more income to housing, leaving less available for savings and investment. Those with family wealth can receive assistance with down payments or inherit assets, while those dependent entirely upon wages are falling further behind. The divide increasingly reflects access to existing capital rather than income alone.
The consequences extend well beyond individual households. Savings provide the capital necessary for future investment. When consumers have sufficient disposable income, they can accumulate reserves, purchase financial assets, start businesses, and finance productive economic activity. When their incomes are consumed by everyday expenses, their ability to accumulate capital deteriorates. A low personal savings rate does not automatically mean the economy is entering a recession, and this national measure is not the same as the percentage of households with emergency savings. Nevertheless, a sustained decline in saving alongside falling real income is a warning that the consumer has less financial flexibility to absorb additional shocks.
The Federal Reserve cannot resolve this problem by simply lowering interest rates. Cheap credit does not restore the purchasing power already lost to inflation. Lower rates may reduce certain borrowing costs, but they can also encourage additional debt accumulation and stimulate asset prices. This is particularly important in housing, where monetary policy helped produce an enormous distortion between those who already owned property and those attempting to enter the market. The public has been conditioned to believe that every economic problem can be solved through another interest-rate adjustment. That mentality ignores the underlying imbalance between income, expenses, and the cost of living.
There is another troubling consequence that receives little attention. Americans who cannot save during their working years will become increasingly dependent upon government programs in retirement. Social Security was never intended to replace personal savings entirely, yet millions of households are struggling to accumulate sufficient financial reserves. The government is already confronting enormous unfunded obligations and rising debt-service costs. An aging population with inadequate personal savings will place additional pressure upon a fiscal system that is already dependent upon continuous borrowing. This is not a sustainable long-term economic model.
Consumer confidence deteriorates when people no longer believe their financial circumstances will improve. The decline in savings is consistent with that broader anxiety. People may still be employed and spending money, but they recognize that their ability to build wealth is diminishing. They see retirement becoming more expensive, homeownership moving further out of reach, and emergency expenses becoming increasingly difficult to absorb. The government’s economic statistics may show growth, but those figures do not necessarily capture the financial insecurity experienced by households whose wages are failing to keep pace with essential expenses.
The personal savings rate is now telling us something that Washington would prefer to ignore. Americans are spending a growing share of their disposable income while their real purchasing power remains under pressure. A consumer-driven economy cannot indefinitely depend upon households reducing savings and accumulating debt to maintain consumption. Eventually, people must cut spending, increase income, or borrow even more. None of those adjustments can be postponed forever.
The politicians will continue pointing to GDP, employment, and nominal consumer expenditures as proof that everything is fine. But an economy cannot be judged solely by how much money changes hands. The real measure of prosperity is whether people can maintain their standard of living, accumulate capital, and improve their financial circumstances over time. With the personal savings rate down to 3.8%, Americans are being left with an increasingly narrow margin for error. Washington may celebrate the spending, but the consumer is paying the price.
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[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
The American personal savings rate has collapsed to 3.8%, the lowest level in four years. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the savings rate declined from 4.5% in July to 4.0% in August and 3.8% in September. The government will tell you that consumer spending remains strong and that the economy continues to expand. What they fail to explain is that Americans are increasingly spending their income simply to survive, leaving less money to save for emergencies, retirement, or future investments. The consumer is being squeezed from every direction, yet Washington continues celebrating economic growth as though rising nominal spending automatically means rising prosperity.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that personal income increased by $54.5 billion in September, while disposable personal income rose by $52.7 billion. Consumer spending, however, increased by $113.1 billion. Americans increased their spending by more than twice the increase in their disposable income. The personal savings rate fell accordingly, and real disposable income actually declined by 0.3% for the month. Real consumer spending was essentially unchanged. This is the economic reality hidden beneath the headlines. Americans are spending more dollars without purchasing significantly more goods and services. That is hardly a sign of improving living standards.
The September Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index increased 3.6% from a year earlier, while core inflation rose 3.1%. These are annual increases being added to an already elevated price level. Meanwhile, nominal disposable income increased only 0.2% in September against a 0.5% monthly increase in consumer prices. The result was another decline in real purchasing power. Americans cannot save money that has already been consumed by rising expenses. It is astonishing that economists continue expressing surprise when consumer confidence deteriorates while the cost of maintaining an ordinary household keeps rising.
The government points to consumer spending as evidence of economic strength, but spending is not necessarily prosperity. People must purchase food regardless of whether prices rise. They must pay their mortgages, rent, insurance premiums, and electricity bills. If the cost of these necessities increases by 20% or 30%, the government records higher consumer expenditures even though households may be purchasing the same quantity of goods and services. A family paying $1,500 for what previously cost $1,200 has not become wealthier. It has lost $300 that could otherwise have been saved, invested, or spent elsewhere.
There are also two very different American economies developing. Those who accumulated financial assets and real estate before the pandemic have generally benefited from rising asset valuations. Someone who purchased a home years ago and refinanced at 3% is in an entirely different position from a younger family attempting to purchase that same property today. Home prices have increased substantially, and financing costs remain elevated compared with the pandemic years. The younger household must devote far more income to housing, leaving less available for savings and investment. Those with family wealth can receive assistance with down payments or inherit assets, while those dependent entirely upon wages are falling further behind. The divide increasingly reflects access to existing capital rather than income alone.
The consequences extend well beyond individual households. Savings provide the capital necessary for future investment. When consumers have sufficient disposable income, they can accumulate reserves, purchase financial assets, start businesses, and finance productive economic activity. When their incomes are consumed by everyday expenses, their ability to accumulate capital deteriorates. A low personal savings rate does not automatically mean the economy is entering a recession, and this national measure is not the same as the percentage of households with emergency savings. Nevertheless, a sustained decline in saving alongside falling real income is a warning that the consumer has less financial flexibility to absorb additional shocks.
The Federal Reserve cannot resolve this problem by simply lowering interest rates. Cheap credit does not restore the purchasing power already lost to inflation. Lower rates may reduce certain borrowing costs, but they can also encourage additional debt accumulation and stimulate asset prices. This is particularly important in housing, where monetary policy helped produce an enormous distortion between those who already owned property and those attempting to enter the market. The public has been conditioned to believe that every economic problem can be solved through another interest-rate adjustment. That mentality ignores the underlying imbalance between income, expenses, and the cost of living.
There is another troubling consequence that receives little attention. Americans who cannot save during their working years will become increasingly dependent upon government programs in retirement. Social Security was never intended to replace personal savings entirely, yet millions of households are struggling to accumulate sufficient financial reserves. The government is already confronting enormous unfunded obligations and rising debt-service costs. An aging population with inadequate personal savings will place additional pressure upon a fiscal system that is already dependent upon continuous borrowing. This is not a sustainable long-term economic model.
Consumer confidence deteriorates when people no longer believe their financial circumstances will improve. The decline in savings is consistent with that broader anxiety. People may still be employed and spending money, but they recognize that their ability to build wealth is diminishing. They see retirement becoming more expensive, homeownership moving further out of reach, and emergency expenses becoming increasingly difficult to absorb. The government’s economic statistics may show growth, but those figures do not necessarily capture the financial insecurity experienced by households whose wages are failing to keep pace with essential expenses.
The personal savings rate is now telling us something that Washington would prefer to ignore. Americans are spending a growing share of their disposable income while their real purchasing power remains under pressure. A consumer-driven economy cannot indefinitely depend upon households reducing savings and accumulating debt to maintain consumption. Eventually, people must cut spending, increase income, or borrow even more. None of those adjustments can be postponed forever.
The politicians will continue pointing to GDP, employment, and nominal consumer expenditures as proof that everything is fine. But an economy cannot be judged solely by how much money changes hands. The real measure of prosperity is whether people can maintain their standard of living, accumulate capital, and improve their financial circumstances over time. With the personal savings rate down to 3.8%, Americans are being left with an increasingly narrow margin for error. Washington may celebrate the spending, but the consumer is paying the price.
Tweet
Continue reading...
[ H/T The Burning Platform ]
